The Shift in the Fleet's Age Profile
The global bulk carrier fleet is getting older, with the average vessel age climbing from about 8.6 years in 2018 to nearly 13 years in 2025. The most striking growth has been in the 11- to-15 years and 16-to-20 years age segments, reflecting the delivery surge of 2010 to 2012 and a prolonged slowdown in scrapping. Newbuilding activity has been modest for much of the last decade, amplifying the upward shift.
Between early 2018 and mid-2025, the 11-to-15-year-old group expanded sharply, overtaking younger cohorts. The 16-to-20-year-old segment doubled, rising from around 870 ships to roughly 1,800. Meanwhile, the youngest groups have contracted. Ships of less than 5 years of age fell from more than 3,500 in 2018 to about 2,300 in 2025, while the 6-to-10 years group also declined, a consequence of fewer orders in the mid-2010s and the steady progression of vessels into older brackets.
Slower Scrapping, Modest Ordering
The rise in average age has been accelerated by low scrapping volumes. The last major demolition surge came in 2015-2016, when nearly 30 million tons of deadweight per year were removed. Since then, annual scrapping has rarely exceeded 10 million tons of deadweight and in 2023-2024 it hovered between 3 and 3.5 million. Many ships that might once have been retired have remained in service.
Ordering has followed clear cycles, with peaks in 2007, 2010, and 2013. Since 2017, activity has mostly ranged between 400 and 700 ships per year, except for a modest uptick in 2024. These levels are too low to offset the aging effect created by earlier building booms.
Why Renewal Has Lagged
The large mid-life segment in today's fleet is the predictable result of past ordering surges. Owners have been reluctant to scrap due to low demolition prices, profitable trading opportunities, and the continued viability of older ships in less demanding trades.
The downturn after 2013 sharply reduced orders, creating today's thin pipeline of 6-to-10-year-old vessels. At the same time, regulatory uncertainty has slowed investment in new tonnage. With no clear consensus on whether LNG, methanol, ammonia, or other fuels will dominate, some owners prefer to extend the life of existing ships rather than risk an early bet on one technology. Financing constraints and limited yard capacity for bulk carriers, as yards focused on LNG and container ships, added further obstacles.
Patterns Worth Watching Out For
The concentration of tonnage in the 11-to-15-year group is unusually high. Within the next five to seven years, much of this block will pass the 20-year mark, potentially triggering a sharp rise in scrapping if markets weaken or environmental rules tighten.
The youngest group, aged 0-to-5 years, appears to have stabilized by 2023-2024. If ordering holds at 2024's level or increases, the fleet’s age could plateau later this decade. Another notable shift is the weaker link between market downturns and scrapping. In earlier cycles, demolition volumes spiked when freight rates fell, as in 2012 and 2015-2016. Recently, owners have kept older ships trading even when earnings softened, pointing to a change in behavior or economics.
What Could Change the Trend?
A combination of stronger ordering and higher scrapping could reduce the fleet's average age. Achieving both will require greater clarity on fuel standards and market conditions that reward renewal. Stricter environmental enforcement, particularly on CII performance, could force earlier retirements. Rising maintenance costs for ships approaching 20-25 years would reinforce the pressure.
Implications for Stakeholders
For owners, older ships can still compete, but compliance and fuel efficiency costs will rise. Those with fleets heavily weighted toward the 11-to-20-year bracket should prepare for renewal.
For charterers, older tonnage may offer cost advantages in the short term, but it carries higher operational and reputational risks, especially if environmental performance is poor.
For investors, an aging fleet can support freight rates by limiting supply growth, but it also signals large capital needs ahead. Aligning investment with renewal cycles will be key.
What Could Change the Trend?
The most likely path is a gradual aging through 2026-2027, with the average age surpassing 13.5 years. The turning point will come as the large 2010-2012 cohort nears 20 years old and scrapping increases. The timing will depend on market strength, regulatory pressure, and clarity on decarbonization pathways.
If ordering remains firm and scrapping accelerates mid-decade, the fleet's age could stabilize by the late 2020s. Prolonged uncertainty over fuel technology, coupled with continued low scrapping, could push the average beyond past norms. In either case, the structural imprint of the last decade’s ordering and demolition patterns will shape bulk shipping’s capacity and competitiveness for years to come.
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