Updated 10 July, 2026:
As we predicted earlier this week, Typhoon Bavi is currently impacting navigation around Taiwan and Shanghai area despite having decreased its intensity. The typhoon is now rated as a Category 1, according to ECMWF as shown on Windy through Signal & AXSMarine's Windy.com plugin.
Several safety bulletins have been issued by China Maritime Safety Administration to restrict navigation during the Typhoon.
The impact is already visible in the dry bulk segment: vessel activity around Shanghai has fallen by 50%, dropping from 180 vessels at berth earlier this week to 83 on Friday, 10th of July.
Winds are expected to ease as Bavi makes landfall but will remain elevated until Monday/Tuesday next week, continuing to disrupt port operations from Shanghai to Qingdao.
Original analysis from 7 July, 2026:
Bavi Approaches a Key Taiwan–China Shipping Corridor
Super Typhoon Bavi is moving toward the Taiwan–China shipping corridor, raising the risk of short-term disruption to vessel routing, China port operations, commodity discharge schedules and Pacific vessel supply.
According to ECMWF model output shown through Windy, Bavi is currently tracking as an extremely powerful typhoon system, with forecast wind gusts of up to 100 knots as it approaches the region around Friday, 10 July. The projected path places the storm close to one of the busiest maritime areas in Asia, where vessels regularly transit between the Pacific, Taiwan Strait, East China Sea and major Chinese ports.
Vessels Already Adjusting Routes Around the Storm
Vessels are already avoiding the typhoon's path, as confirmed by the Signal & AXSMarine Windy.com plugin. Ships are adjusting their routes around the typhoon’s projected path.
As Bavi moves closer to the coast, weather-related routing changes could become more pronounced, especially if wind, wave and visibility conditions deteriorate across key approach lanes.
By Friday, Bavi could bring gusts of around 100 knots and waves of up to 12 meters at an 11-second period. These conditions would represent a direct navigational risk for vessels at sea and could also affect port operations, pilotage, berthing windows and cargo handling at exposed terminals.
China Port Disruption Risk Across Shipping Segments
The potential impact is not limited to one shipping segment. Dry bulk, container, tanker and gas markets could all face disruption, although the effects would differ by trade and port exposure.
For container shipping, the main risk is schedule disruption. If Chinese ports close, reduce operations or delay vessel movements for safety reasons, carriers could face berth-window disruption, vessel bunching and downstream congestion.
For dry bulk, the risk is concentrated around discharge delays, anchorage build-up and slower terminal activity. If vessels are forced to wait outside affected ports, tonnage availability across the Pacific could tighten, particularly if delays coincide with high-volume commodity discharge programs.
Iron Ore Leads China Commodity Discharge Exposure
Commodity flows most exposed by volume include iron ore, thermal coal, bauxite, soybeans, coking coal and nickel ore. Current AXSMarine data shows that iron ore has the largest scheduled discharge exposure, rising from 12.5 million tons in week 28 to 16.7 million tons in week 29.
| Top 6 Commodities to be discharged in China | Week 28 | Week 29 |
| Iron Ore | 12.5 m MT | 16.7 m MT |
| Steam (Thermal) Coal | 6.4 m MT | 3.5 m MT |
| Bauxite | 4.3 m MT | 3.0 m MT |
| Soybeans | 1.9 m MT | 1.9 m MT |
| Coking Coal | 1.8 m MT | 0.8 m MT |
| Nickel Ore | 1.5 m MT | 0.7 m MT |
Typhoon Season Keeps Weather Risk Elevated
With typhoon season now underway, weather-related shipping risk is likely to remain elevated through November. AXSMarine seasonality data shows recurring periods of stronger wind gusts across Chinese coastal zones during this part of the year, keeping port congestion, vessel supply and commodity flow disruption firmly on the radar.
What to Watch Next
Over the coming days, the main indicators to monitor will be vessel deviations, port closure notices, anchorage build-up, berth activity and changes in scheduled commodity discharge volumes. If Bavi tracks closer to major Chinese discharge zones, the impact could shift from a short-term routing issue into a broader port congestion and vessel supply event.
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