The escalation of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz has led to one of the most significant disruptions to commercial shipping observed in recent years. Drawing on AXSMarine AIS-derived data combined with commercial datasets, activity observed throughout the month points to a sharp contraction in vessel movements, a significant concentration of tonnage within the Persian Gulf, and increasingly complex operating conditions across all major shipping segments.
While some traffic continues to pass through the Strait, movements remain highly selective, uneven across vessel classes, and heavily influenced by operational risk tolerance.
A System Under Constraint: Vessel Concentration and Limited Transits
By mid-March, more than 1,000 merchant vessels remained positioned west of the Strait of Hormuz, reflecting a substantial buildup of tonnage across multiple fleet segments. Over several consecutive days, only a handful of vessels were able to transit the chokepoint, highlighting the scale of the disruption relative to normal operating conditions.
At the same time, AIS transmission irregularities became increasingly widespread. A significant share of vessels in the region were either no longer broadcasting signals or were transmitting inconsistent or potentially manipulated positions. This further complicates real-time visibility and reinforces the need for enriched AIS analysis when assessing market conditions.
Dry Bulk: Imbalance Between Outbound and Inbound Flows
Dry bulk vessels accounted for a substantial share of the fleet confined within the Gulf, with a strong presence of Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize units. The segment shows clear signs of operational imbalance.
Outbound movements, primarily consisting of vessels that have completed discharge operations, continue to exceed inbound traffic by a wide margin. This trend has persisted throughout the month, indicating that operators are prioritizing exits from the region while limiting new exposure.
Despite the disruption, cargo movements have not come to a complete halt. Selected vessels continue to transit with both laden cargoes and in ballast, although these movements are often accompanied by irregular AIS behavior, including signal loss or spoofing. The overall pattern suggested that dry bulk flows were constrained but still partially functioning under heightened uncertainty.
Tankers: High Exposure and Selective Continuity
The tanker segment represented one of the most heavily exposed parts of the market, with hundreds of vessels positioned within the Gulf at any given time. A large proportion of these vessels were laden, underlining the significant volume of energy cargo currently awaiting passage.
Crude oil and refined petroleum products dominated the cargo mix, reinforcing the strategic importance of the region for global energy supply chains. However, tanker movements through the Strait remained limited and highly selective.
A notable feature of recent activity is the prominent role of sanctioned or non-traditional operators, often referred to as the shadow fleet. These vessels appear to demonstrate a higher tolerance for operational risk and continue to facilitate a portion of outbound flows.
AIS disruption within the tanker segment has also intensified, with peak levels of signal loss exceeding those observed during earlier periods of conflict. This further highlights the complexity of monitoring real-time movements in the region.
Gas Carriers: Minimal Activity and High Sensitivity
Gas carriers, particularly LNG vessels, show a markedly different operational pattern compared with tankers. The majority of LNG carriers within the Gulf remain laden, yet movement through the Strait is extremely limited.
LPG carriers demonstrate slightly more flexibility, but overall activity in the segment remains minimal. Only isolated transits have been recorded over extended periods, indicating a significantly lower operational tolerance relative to other vessel classes.
This reflects both the high value of cargoes involved and the specialized nature of gas shipping logistics, which reduces the willingness of operators to assume elevated levels of risk.
Chemical Tankers: Complex Cargoes, Limited Mobility
Chemical tanker activity provides a more granular view of the disruption. Vessels in this segment typically carry multiple cargoes simultaneously, often in segregated tanks, which adds complexity to both operations and cargo attribution.
Within the Gulf, a majority of chemical tankers remain laden, with cargoes including caustic soda, methanol, and clean petroleum products. Despite the presence of cargo, vessel mobility remains extremely limited.
No new inbound chemical tanker traffic had been recorded over extended periods, while outbound movements had been minimal. At the same time, inconsistent AIS signals further complicate efforts to assess vessel status, with a portion of the fleet operating under reduced visibility.
Broader Fleet Presence: Containers and Other Segments
In addition to bulkers and tankers, a wide range of vessel types remain positioned within the affected area. Container ships, vehicle carriers, and smaller specialized segments all contribute to the overall concentration of shipping within the Gulf.
Although these segments are less dominant in volume terms, their presence highlights the broad scope of the disruption, extending beyond energy and bulk commodity trades into general cargo and liner shipping.
Cargo Exposure: Multiple Supply Chains at Risk
An analysis of cargo composition revealed the extent to which multiple supply chains are simultaneously exposed to the disruption.
On the dry bulk side, cargoes within the Gulf include grains, fertilizers, industrial minerals, and metals such as steel and iron ore. These flows underline the region’s role in supporting both agricultural and industrial supply chains.
Tanker cargoes are led by crude oil, with significant volumes of refined petroleum products also present. Chemical cargoes, though smaller in total volume, add another layer of complexity due to their specialized handling requirements.
The coexistence of energy, agricultural, and industrial cargoes within the same constrained geography highlights the systemic importance of the Strait and the wide-ranging implications of any prolonged disruption.
Emerging Patterns: Risk, Behavior, and Market Fragmentation
Several behavioral patterns have become evident across all vessel segments.
AIS disruption, including both signal loss and spoofing, has become a defining characteristic of the operating environment. In parallel, vessels have been observed modifying AIS destination fields, reflecting attempts to manage exposure or influence perception.
Transit activity remains highly selective, with outbound movements generally exceeding inbound flows. Operators appear to be prioritizing risk reduction, leading to a gradual imbalance in regional vessel distribution.
At the same time, segments differ significantly in their response. Tankers continue to move selectively, supported in part by higher-risk operators, while gas and chemical segments remain far more constrained.
Key Takeaways
The disruption around the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026 revealed a shipping system operating under sustained constraint. While flows did not cease entirely, they have become fragmented, uneven, and highly dependent on vessel type and operator risk tolerance.
Dry bulk vessels continue to move selectively, tanker flows persist under increased reliance on non-traditional operators, and gas and chemical segments remain largely immobilized. At the same time, multiple cargo supply chains remain exposed within the region, amplifying the potential impact of prolonged disruption.
Our AXSInsights and Trade Flows modules can provide critical visibility into these developments, enabling a more accurate assessment of how global shipping adapts under extreme conditions through their AIS-derived data combined with key commercial datasets.
AXSMarine's APIs are particularly useful if you would like to take advantage of our raw data only, while maintaining complete customization options over your own analyses.
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