The first four months of 2025 started strong for the Panamax segment, with vessel loadings running well ahead of historical norms. Fresh figures from AXSMarine show volumes consistently outperforming previous years, especially in March. This momentum is largely underpinned by a surge in agricultural exports, particularly soybeans, and steady, if somewhat restructured, coal flows. This has come despite broader macroeconomic signals remaining mixed.
Soybeans lead the charge
Soybeans have clearly taken the lead in early 2025. Brazilian exports surged in February and March, hitting all-years highs and pushing Panamax employment to seasonal peaks not seen in recent years. Brazil’s program has been running at full tilt. March loadings exceeded 15 million tonnes, and April is not far behind. Both surpassed last year’s levels by roughly a million tonnes.
In 2024, Brazil accounted for 64% of global soybean exports, with the US following at 28%. China remains the key buyer, responsible for more than two-thirds of global imports last year. Recent reports suggest Beijing has lifted suspensions on five Brazilian exporters, though the exact timeline is unclear. Nevertheless, Brazil has solidified its role as China’s main supplier. Despite ongoing trade tensions, China is gradually diversifying its import sources, tilting further toward Brazil while reducing dependence on the US. Trade Flows data suggests that this shift is opportunistic. China buys from both origins depending on price spreads and seasonality.
Soybean strength has carried the broader Panamax segment above its three-year seasonal average. The difference is clear in the charts. 2025 volumes are significantly ahead of prior years. However, this trend isn’t mirrored across the board. Canadian grain exports, for instance, have held flat year-on-year with no major surprises.
Improved turnaround times at Brazilian ports
The uptick in exports isn’t just about crop size and competitive pricing. Brazil’s ports are operating more efficiently this year. AXSMarine congestion data shows fewer anchored vessels and shorter waiting times across key terminals, with averages sitting well below the three-year average.
This smoother logistics cycle is releasing vessels back into the spot market just as demand heats up. That’s helping to absorb the cargo surge without triggering the tightness often seen during Brazil’s peak season. Atlantic round voyages have edged higher, but not as sharply as cargo volumes. Ships that would’ve been idle at anchor for days are now turning around faster. Unless late-season weather or a second harvest wave introduces disruptions, 2025 is shaping up as a volume-driven market without the congestion premiums that propped up earnings last year.
Coal: Stable Volumes, Subtle Shifts
Coal continues to be a reliable source of Panamax employment, building on last year’s record 540 million tonnes. Volumes remain above the seasonal average and are broadly in line with 2024. But the makeup of that trade is shifting.
Metallurgical coal flows to India and Southeast Asia are sustaining long-haul voyages from Australia. At the same time, Russia’s Far East is shipping substantial volumes to China. These are short-haul trades, high in frequency but low in ton-mile contribution. Thermal coal, on the other hand, is quieter. China’s imports have dipped as domestic production remains strong, and winter demand stayed muted. Japanese and South Korean buyers have also pulled back, supported by healthy LNG inventories and rising renewables. Indonesia is still active on shorter runs to India and China, but these lower-margin trades don’t provide the same lift to earnings. Coal remains an anchor for the market, but without a strong restocking push or external supply shocks, it is no longer a driving force on its own.
Regulatory and Logistical Friction Points
Environmental policy and logistical chokepoints are playing a growing role in shaping Panamax deployment. The Panama Canal has started prioritizing more efficient, lower-emission vessels, with broader changes expected later this year. Meanwhile, droughts have again disrupted key inland waterways, including the Mississippi and Parana rivers. These shifts are pushing cargoes to coastal loadings or forcing lighter drafts, which in turn distort traditional trading patterns.
While such frictions aren't new, they seem to be appearing more frequently. Operators are adjusting, but these shifts come with hidden costs. Missed laycans, delayed rotations, and changing arbitrage incentives ripple through both shipowners' and charterers' strategies.
Panamax demand had a strong start in 2025. Soybeans have given the segment a clear lift, while coal has kept the base stable, even if its dynamics are evolving. The fleet has responded well to shifting trade patterns and operational hurdles. Looking ahead, uncertainty lingers, especially around energy demand and weather-linked disruptions. Still, the segment’s adaptability remains one of its core strengths.
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