As the global container shipping sector navigates the final quarter of 2025, Alphaliner’s weekly reports highlight a mix of regulatory challenges, market shifts, and evolving fleet strategies. October’s key developments reveal how trade policy, fuel choices, and capacity trends are shaping the industry’s trajectory into 2026.
USTR Fees Could Cost Carriers $3.2 Billion in 2026
Upcoming United States Trade Representative (USTR) measures could impose up to $3.2 billion in cumulative fees on major carriers operating Chinese-owned or Chinese-built ships.
From 14 October 2026, section 301 of the USTR framework will apply a flat $80 per net tonnage per voyage for ships owned or operated by Chinese entities trading with the US. Non-Chinese operators using Chinese-built ships will be charged either $23 per NT or $154 per TEU capacity, applied up to five times annually.
Under current fleet deployments, COSCO Shipping Group would face the steepest impact, with potential fees reaching $1.53 billion. Other heavily exposed operators include ZIM ($510 million), ONE ($363 million), and CMA CGM ($335 million), due to their reliance on chartered Chinese tonnage.
Even MSC, Yang Ming, and CMA CGM could see additional costs of $48–$73 million tied to Chinese-built ships. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd face smaller, though still notable, fees of $17.5 million and $105 million, respectively.
These findings underscore the far-reaching potential of the new USTR policy, which could reshape fleet deployment strategies in the transpacific trades next year.
X-Press Feeders Extends Its Lead Over Unifeeder
In the feeder segment, X-Press Feeders continues to widen its advantage over Unifeeder, expanding operated capacity by 13% (22,500 TEU) since September 2024 — outpacing overall fleet growth of 8%.
By contrast, Unifeeder recorded a 9% rise (12,500 TEU) over the same period. Growth for both operators has slowed after the rapid expansion of 2023–2024, when the Red Sea crisis redirected mainline volumes to third-party feeders.
X-Press Feeders’ expansion has been concentrated in Latin America (up 53% year-on-year, or 9,200 TEU) and the Middle East/Indian Subcontinent (up 8%, or 8,700 TEU). Unifeeder’s gains came primarily from intra-European trades, led by its Unimed Feeder Services (UFS) arm, which added ten new vessels totaling 9,700 TEU.
Dual-Fuel Orders Plateau as Methanol Loses Momentum
Alternative-fuel newbuilding activity has stabilized, marking a pause in the rapid decarbonization momentum seen in 2023–2024.
Through the first ten months of 2025, 72% of new orders featured some form of alternative propulsion, but that figure is down for the second consecutive year. Dual-fuel LNG accounted for 60% of ordered capacity, while methanol-powered ships fell sharply to 12%, down from 18% in 2024 and nearly 50% in 2023.
This trend signals renewed reliance on LNG as a transitional fuel, amid concerns about the global supply of green methanol. Meanwhile, conventionally-fuelled ships have rebounded to 28% of new orders, mainly in the sub-7,500 TEU segment, reflecting stronger demand for smaller, regional vessels.
“Big Three” Shipbuilders Maintain 98.5% of Global Orderbook
The container shipbuilding landscape remains firmly dominated by China, South Korea, and Japan, which together account for 98.5% of the global orderbook — now exceeding 10 million TEU or 31.1% of total fleet capacity.
Outside the “big three,” just 29 ships are currently under construction. Taiwan (16 ships), Turkey (4), the United States (3), and India (2) make up most of the remainder. Smaller units are also on order from yards in Azerbaijan, Indonesia, and Pakistan.
Local factors often drive these exceptions: Turkey’s largest ships are being built by a yard affiliated with their owner-operator, while US orders are linked to Jones Act requirements for domestic services.
COSCO and Hapag-Lloyd Lead 2025 Volume Growth
Global container trade volumes continue to expand, with August 2025 marking the highest-ever month for TEU throughput worldwide. According to Alphaliner’s analysis of Container Trade Statistics data, volumes rose 4.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 and 4.4% by August.
Regionally, all markets except North America showed positive growth. Among carriers, Hapag-Lloyd (+11%) and COSCO Group (+7%) outperformed the market, handling 6.7 million TEU and 13.3 million TEU, respectively, in the first half of the year.
Other major operators — including Maersk (2.2%), CMA CGM (2.0%), ONE (1.5%), Evergreen (1.0%), and ZIM (2.3%) — posted more moderate gains, while HMM achieved 3.7% growth, supported by rising European and Latin American volumes.
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As the container shipping landscape balances growth with regulatory and environmental pressures, 2026 promises to bring carriers face to face with complex strategic decisions . For timely insights, the Alphaliner Weekly Newsletter delivers concise, data-driven updates straight to your inbox, keeping you informed on fleet composition under USTR sanctions, decarbonization pathways, trade lane optimizations, and other industry trends as they happen.
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