Three months after the Strait of Hormuz closed, United States crude exports have surged 42 percent from the pre-event baseline, reaching 6.8 mbpd in May. VLCC and Aframax loadings led the lift. Crude-in-transit is up 88 percent, and average voyage distance is roughly a third longer. The fleet is loaded, going long, and most of the cargo is still mid-voyage.
Bottom line
The Strait of Hormuz closed on 28 February 2026 and the market expected United States crude exports to surge. They did, and the surge is sustained, VLCC and Aframax led, and pointing long-haul. US crude export loadings ran at 4.79 mbpd in February pre-event, climbed to 5.08 in March, surged to 6.29 mbpd in April, and reached 6.78 mbpd in May. That is a roughly 2.0 mbpd step-change versus the pre-Hormuz baseline, a 42 percent lift in three months. VLCC loadings drove the largest single share of it: from 1.47 mbpd in February to 2.77 mbpd in May, a near-doubling on the workhorse class for long-haul trade. Aframax surged in parallel, from 1.90 to 2.79 mbpd. Crude-in-transit rose from roughly 120 million barrels to 225 million by 22 May, an 88 percent rise that broke above the 2021-2025 historical envelope ceiling near 149 million. Implied average voyage distance is roughly a third longer than before the event. The substitution is real, the vessels are on the pitch, and most of the cargo is still en route.
[Figure 1: Crude Oil in Transit, US Origin - 2026 line breaking above 2021-2025 historical envelope, peaking at 209 million barrels in May]
The signal in the data
Four readings from AXSMarine, US-origin crude oil loadings (USA-to-USA flows included), load-keyed, 1 February to 22 May 2026.
VLCC volumes, the striker. US crude loadings on VLCCs sat at 1.47 mbpd in February, dipped to 1.09 in March, surged to 2.34 in April, and reached 2.77 mbpd in May. May was a fresh peak and a near-doubling versus the pre-event baseline, plus 1.30 mbpd over the period. By volume share, VLCCs are now carrying roughly 41 percent of all US crude loadings, up from about 31 percent in February. This is the long-haul leg, and it is still scaling.
Aframax volumes, the midfielder. Aframax loadings climbed from 1.90 mbpd in February to 2.59 in March, eased to 2.28 in April, then surged again to 2.79 mbpd in May, a fresh peak and a plus 0.89 mbpd lift over the period. The class handled the shorter-haul Atlantic basin substitution work, with European refinery intake and Latin American discharge absorbing the cargoes that did not fit on a VLCC.
Suezmax volumes, the defender. Suezmax loadings ran 1.42 mbpd in February, were broadly flat through March, ticked up to 1.67 in April, then pulled back to 1.22 mbpd in May. Net change of minus 0.20 mbpd. This is the class most exposed to mid-haul substitution work, and the data say it is being squeezed from both ends: longer-haul barrels going on VLCCs, shorter-haul cargoes on Aframax.
[Figure 2: Monthly average crude export loadings by vessel class, Feb to May 2026, cabotage excluded]
Ton-miles and crude-in-transit, the stretch. Total ton-miles generated by US-origin laden tankers ran roughly 4.0 billion per day in early February and peaked near 7.0 billion in mid-May, easing to about 6.1 billion by 22 May. Crude-in-transit grew from approximately 120 million barrels to 225 million over the same window, an 88 percent rise that broke above the 2021-2025 historical envelope ceiling near 149 million. With loadings up 42 percent and crude-in-transit up 88 percent, the differential is the voyage-distance effect: implied average voyage distance is roughly a third longer than the pre-Hormuz baseline.
[Figure 4: Commodity period-over-period change by vessel class, Feb to May 2026, cabotage excluded]
Mechanism
This is what the substitution trade looks like when it is working at scale. With Middle East Gulf supply mostly off the market since 28 February, US Gulf VLCCs are loading and pointing east to Asia, while Aframax handles the shorter Atlantic basin work and Suezmax has been squeezed toward the margins. The VLCC class is the right tool for the long trip: roughly 2 million barrels per cargo, the cargo economics to make a 45 to 65-day round voyage work, and the only class that can replicate the per-barrel costs the Middle East to Asia trade was running on before the closure.
VLCC contributed the lion's share of the April month-on-month surge, on a class that carries 2-million-barrel cargoes to long-haul destinations. Aframax took the lead in May. Suezmax has lost ground throughout. Crude-in-transit rose 88 percent while loadings rose 42 percent; the differential points to a structural shift in where US barrels are going, not just how many.
The US driving season is starting. United States gasoline demand peaks Memorial Day through Labor Day, and refinery utilisation typically lifts from roughly 85 percent in winter to 93 to 95 percent in peak summer, absorbing an additional 1.0 to 1.5 mbpd of domestic crude versus the winter baseline on an 18 mbpd refining base. The US is structurally short of crude at peak summer refining: production of roughly 13.5 mbpd against refinery runs near 17 mbpd implies a 3.5 mbpd net import need before any gross exports are loaded. Sustaining gross exports at the May rate of 6.78 mbpd while running refineries at peak therefore implies gross crude imports rising to around 10 mbpd, materially above current levels of roughly 6 to 7 mbpd. If that import lift cannot be sustained - a combination of Canadian pipeline utilisation, seaborne heavy sour availability and refinery configuration is the most likely binding constraint - the system rebalances on one of three margins: exports falling back, refinery runs staying below peak, or commercial inventory drawing down. The June-July export trajectory will reveal which margin binds first.
What to watch
Three indicators over the next two months.
- VLCC loadings holding above 2.5 mbpd through June and July. May printed 2.77, April 2.34. A sustained 2.5 to 3.0 mbpd range would mark a structural new ceiling for US Gulf VLCC outflow. A drop below 2.0 mbpd would signal that either Asian demand is rolling over or US domestic absorption is running ahead of seasonality.
- Ton-miles and crude-in-transit trajectory. Both should plateau or begin to fall in late June through July as the in-transit wave starts discharging. Continued stock growth above the May levels would say new loadings are still outpacing discharges. A break below 200 million barrels-in-transit would say the discharge wave is finally arriving.
Conclusion
The US Gulf has had a strong opening three months. The vessels are in the right positions, the volumes are rising on the long-haul tonnage, and May was the biggest month so far. The Asian discharge wave that will confirm the picture starts landing in mid-June and runs through August. The driving season is the next test.
Mundial kicks off in two weeks. The tankers are already on the pitch.
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